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Geometric method

Given the observed populations in two known years, determines the geometric growth rate observed in the period and predicts the future population through this rate.

This method uses the data from two known years to determine the population growth rate and predict future population. The formula used is:

$P_y = P_1 \times \left( \frac{P_2}{P_1} \right)^{\frac{t_y - t_1}{t_2 - t_1}}$

Parameter | Default Units | Description |
---|---|---|

Year 1 | - | First year of observation |

Year 2 | - | Second year of observation |

Year of interest | - | Year for which the prediction is made |

Population 1 | - | Population observed in Year 1 |

Population 2 | - | Population observed in Year 2 |

Predicted population's size | - | Estimated population for the year of interest |

Given the observed populations in two known years, determines the geometric growth rate observed in the period and predicts the future population through this rate.

This method uses the data from two known years to determine the population growth rate and predict future population. The formula used is:

$P_y = P_1 \times \left( \frac{P_2}{P_1} \right)^{\frac{t_y - t_1}{t_2 - t_1}}$

Parameter | Default Units | Description |
---|---|---|

Year 1 | - | First year of observation |

Year 2 | - | Second year of observation |

Year of interest | - | Year for which the prediction is made |

Population 1 | - | Population observed in Year 1 |

Population 2 | - | Population observed in Year 2 |

Predicted population's size | - | Estimated population for the year of interest |

- VIANNA, Marcos Rocha. Produção, Reservação e Distribuição de Água. e-book. Belo Horizonte: Bloom, 2021.