Given the observed populations in three known and equidistant years, determines the logistic function applied to the period and predicts the future population through this function.
This method uses the data from three known years to determine the logistic curve of the population and predict future population. The formula used is:
$P_y = \dfrac{K}{1 + e ^ {a + b(t_y - t_1)}}$
where:
$K$ is the carrying capacity, calculated using:
$K = \dfrac{2P_1P_2P_3 - (P_1 + P_3)P_2^2}{P_1P_3 - P_2^2}$
$a$ and $b$ are constants determined from the given data.
Parameter | Default Units | Description |
---|---|---|
Year 1 | - | First year of observation |
Year 2 | - | Second year of observation |
Year 3 | - | Third year of observation |
Year of interest | - | Year for which the prediction is made |
Population 1 | - | Population observed in Year 1 |
Population 2 | - | Population observed in Year 2 |
Population 3 | - | Population observed in Year 3 |
Predicted population's size | - | Estimated population for the year of interest |
Given the observed populations in three known and equidistant years, determines the logistic function applied to the period and predicts the future population through this function.
This method uses the data from three known years to determine the logistic curve of the population and predict future population. The formula used is:
$P_y = \dfrac{K}{1 + e ^ {a + b(t_y - t_1)}}$
where:
$K$ is the carrying capacity, calculated using:
$K = \dfrac{2P_1P_2P_3 - (P_1 + P_3)P_2^2}{P_1P_3 - P_2^2}$
$a$ and $b$ are constants determined from the given data.
Parameter | Default Units | Description |
---|---|---|
Year 1 | - | First year of observation |
Year 2 | - | Second year of observation |
Year 3 | - | Third year of observation |
Year of interest | - | Year for which the prediction is made |
Population 1 | - | Population observed in Year 1 |
Population 2 | - | Population observed in Year 2 |
Population 3 | - | Population observed in Year 3 |
Predicted population's size | - | Estimated population for the year of interest |